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Greg

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incoming nasty debate? [Oct. 7th, 2008|10:33 am]
Greg
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Obama is now at 88.5% to win. His national polling numbers (which, yes, don't really matter but are a good summary of the race) are way way way better than Gore's or Kerry's. (or Bush's this close to the election) At least Gallup's national tracking poll seems to have stabilized.

So, things are getting ugly. Palin is attacking, and the results are not pretty:
Worse, Palin's routine attacks on the media have begun to spill into ugliness. In Clearwater, arriving reporters were greeted with shouts and taunts by the crowd of about 3,000. Palin then went on to blame Katie Couric's questions for her "less-than-successful interview with kinda mainstream media." At that, Palin supporters turned on reporters in the press area, waving thunder sticks and shouting abuse. Others hurled obscenities at a camera crew. One Palin supporter shouted a racial epithet at an African American sound man for a network and told him, "Sit down, boy."
You can't blame the candidates for who supports them, but it sure sounds like she's almost inciting the crowd. At a McCain speech, he asked "Who is the real Barack Obama?" and the first shouted answer was "Terrorist!".

McCain has little to lose at this point, so he may go all-out nasty at the debate tonight...
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Comments:
From: abstractseaweed
2008-10-08 12:27 am (UTC)
I'm a good Democrat: I look at 89.2% chance to win and interpret it as an 89.2% chance that the projection will be lower tomorrow.

I do find it interesting that there is such a huge discrepancy between the projected chance to win and the projected popular vote count. It would be sweet payback for 2000 if Obama wins in a landslide while losing the popular vote.
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[User Picture]From: gregstoll
2008-10-08 12:35 am (UTC)
Well, if you think the probability of winning is distributed normally, there's more than an 89.2% chance of it dropping :-)

Right now there's a 3.68% of Obama winning the electoral vote while losing the popular vote (and 2.23% of the opposite happening)...
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