Greg (gregstoll) wrote,
Greg
gregstoll

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Election Predictions!

Here are mine: feel free to post yours here!

- President: Obama wins Kerry states + IA NM CO VA NV OH for a total of 311-227 electoral votes. (here's a decent calculator to play with) This is a somewhat conservative estimate and I hope he breaks 330 EVs or so so it's not that close.
- Senate: Dems win new seats in VA NM CO AK NH OR NC for a total of 58. The GA race goes to a hotly-contested runoff.
- House: Um, I dunno, Dems gain 25 seats.
- California's Prop 8 fails but it's very very close.

Mostly just guessing on these with a slight pessimistic edge.

An interesting video about voting dirty tricks from the Obama campaign, although it's weak on actual advice.

A reminder: exit polls will be leaked tomorrow during the day. They will be partial numbers and very unreliable (they showed Kerry winning in 2004). I don't think I'm gonna be able to stop myself from looking at them (numbers!!) but they're pretty meaningless.
Tags: election
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