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Election Predictions! - Greg [entries|archive|friends|userinfo]
Greg

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Election Predictions! [Nov. 3rd, 2008|09:43 am]
Greg
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[Current Mood |nervousnervous]

Here are mine: feel free to post yours here!

- President: Obama wins Kerry states + IA NM CO VA NV OH for a total of 311-227 electoral votes. (here's a decent calculator to play with) This is a somewhat conservative estimate and I hope he breaks 330 EVs or so so it's not that close.
- Senate: Dems win new seats in VA NM CO AK NH OR NC for a total of 58. The GA race goes to a hotly-contested runoff.
- House: Um, I dunno, Dems gain 25 seats.
- California's Prop 8 fails but it's very very close.

Mostly just guessing on these with a slight pessimistic edge.

An interesting video about voting dirty tricks from the Obama campaign, although it's weak on actual advice.

A reminder: exit polls will be leaked tomorrow during the day. They will be partial numbers and very unreliable (they showed Kerry winning in 2004). I don't think I'm gonna be able to stop myself from looking at them (numbers!!) but they're pretty meaningless.
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Comments:
[User Picture]From: wildrice13
2008-11-03 09:14 pm (UTC)
Before I looked at your details on the presidential, I went and plugged in my own estimate. Turns out, our predictions are the exact same! Though I am with you in hoping it's actually more in favor of Obama--particularly, a Florida flip to Obama, and slightly less exciting but still interesting, a North Carolina flip.

I also think, hope, and pray Prop 8 will fail in CA, but I too believe it will be close.
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[User Picture]From: gregstoll
2008-11-03 09:16 pm (UTC)
Neat! Yeah, NC and FL are the most likely "next states", although IN is also possible...
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[User Picture]From: medryn
2008-11-04 12:13 am (UTC)
You'll be happy to know that Carol and I switched our registration to CA and already mailed in two no votes on 8. :-)
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[User Picture]From: djedi
2008-11-04 06:34 pm (UTC)
I've seen a fair bit of support from people and even though it doesn't directly affect me personally, I'm really touched by it. P. Clinton came out against 8; the Daily Show did a very supportive segment on it, etc.
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[User Picture]From: gregstoll
2008-11-04 06:37 pm (UTC)
Yay, thanks a lot :-)
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